WILL THE NEW SATURN OUTLOOK OBSTRUCT THE VUE

By: Jackie O'Dowd

February 18, 2007

The new Saturn Outlook has generated significant interest since its January Launch. At the end of its first month on the market Outlook shopper counts surpassed 29,000. Compete assessed the early launch impact of the Outlook on Saturn’s other SUV, the VUE.

As Outlook shopper counts grew, VUE shopper counts declined to the lowest level in more than a year. In January VUE shopper counts were just over 40,000, down 43% from their July 2006 peak of 72,000 shoppers. While VUE shopper counts worsened, those who were shopping VUE were more apt to also shop Outlook. The number of shoppers shopping both models increased nearly five fold to over 5,100 or 8% of combined unique shoppers.

A shared shopper analysis can help manufacturers identify the opportunities and risks associated with shopper overlap between two models. More shared shoppers can create spillover demand opportunities from one model to another. This type of analysis could also identify a sales risk if demand for one model is falling while the number of shared shoppers is on the rise (as with VUE).

CAN MANUFACTURERS IMPROVE THE SUCCESS OF A LAUNCH THROUGH TIMING?

Over the past 13 months, differences in Domestic and Asian OEM launch strategies have had a significant impact on Share of Market Interest. Compete measured Share of Market Interest between Asian and Domestic model groups over time to assess the role of launch timing in overall demand.

Asian OEMs focused launch efforts in mid-Q1 through Q2 in 2006 (just in time for the Spring/Summer buying season), resulting in period-high Share of Market Interest while Domestic Share hit period-lows. Domestic OEMs followed traditional launch timing by introducing several new 2007 models in the fall of 2006. As a result, demand and Share of Market Interest among Domestic model groups has steadily increased since August, but reached parity with Asian Share of Market Interest at best.

Certain Asian OEMs repeated their 2006 strategy and held off launching their new 2007 models until mid-Q1 of 2007. Will Asian Share of Market Interest recover?

Automotive manufacturers can utilize Compete’s shopper count and Share of Market Interest metrics to analyze the impact of vehicle launch timing on demand and optimize future launch strategies accordingly. When analyzed over time (one to two years), manufacturers can identify seasonal trends in market reaction to launches as well. By considering shopper trends at an industry, Brand, and Nameplate level, OEMs can gain a comprehensive view of demand, and better quantify the success of new vehicles.